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By Liz Alper
February 17, 2016 (San Diego) - The moment that hungry baseball fans like you and I have been waiting for is finally here.
Spring training is finally here. Today is the first day. The teams are warming up in Arizona and Florida as I type this.
This is an exciting time of year for baseball fans, but PECOTA doesn't think it should be for the Padres.
PECOTA is an acronym for the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimized Test Algorithm. It takes each player on a baseball team's roster and predicts their career path and the team's record based on the most logical outcome.
Last year, the Padres were predicted to win 83 games and instead won 74, so that gives you an idea of how accurate this thing is. The numbers released this morning predicted that the Padres would finish in last in the NL West with a record of 77-92. Now, because the depth charts have changed three times, the prediction is now fourth place with a record of 77-85 in front of the Colorado Rockies (who else) and behind the Arizona Diamondbacks.
But who knows where the Pads could be ten minutes from now? This scale is about as accurate as Corsi ratings in hockey.
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