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By Miriam Raftery
Photo by Ron Logan (during Sanders' visit to San Diego)
March 26, 2016 (San Diego’s East County) -- Three states held Democratic presidential caucuses today—and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders soundly defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by hefty margins in all three western states. (There were no Republican matches today.)
In Alaska, Sanders won a whopping 81.6% of the vote, while Clinton took just 18.4% with 100% of precincts reported. Washington state was won by Sanders with 72.7% of the vote to Clinton’s 27.2% with 99% of precincts reporting.In Hawaii, Sanders won with 70% of the delegates to Clinton's 30%.
Per Associated Press, Sanders now has 975 pledged delegates, just 268 behind Clinton, hwo has 1,245 pledged delegates. Clinton ha 469 super delegates to Sanders' 29, though there is growingi talk of some super delegates changing sides if Sanders wins the most pledged delegates. Currently the total count, pledged and superdelegates, is Clinton 1,712 to Sanders 1,004. A total of 2,383 is needed to win the nomination, with 2,049 still up for grabs in states that have not yet voted.
Sanders beat Clinton in Alaska and Washington by even larger margins than President Barack did in the 2008 election. Washington is among the nation’s most liberal states, much like the west coast states of Oregon and California that have yet to go to the polls.
Hawaii is one of the most racially diverse states in the nation, with only 24% of the population white; 42% are Asian, 9% Pacific Islanders, 2% African-American and the rest multi-racial or other.
In contrast to Hawaii, Alaska has a population that is 69% white, 16% American Indian or Alaskan Native, 4% Asian, 3% African-American and the rest other or mixed races. Alaska, home to substantial anti-establishment sentiment, earlier awarded the lion’s share of its delegates in the Republican primary to Donald Trump.
Tonight’s wins add momentum to Sanders’ campaign. The progressive Senator has now won 15 states, with other recent wins by very substantial margins. But Clinton still has the edge with around 270 more delegates awarded through voting. Morever, the vast majority of the superdelegates (elected officials who are delegates) have pledged to vote for Clinton (469, vs. 29 for Sanders).
Democratic primaries and caucuses are not winner take all (unless one candidate wins over 85% of the votes); instead votes are awarded proportionately.
Sanders has a path to win – but only if he can continue winning states by large margins. Even then, he would likely need s substantial number of the super delegates to switch allegiances and vote for him at the Democratic National Convention.
There is precedent for that, as Mrs. Clinton knows from experience. In 2008, she started the primary off with a 3 to 1 lead over Barack Obama in super delegates, but after his big win in the popular vote nationally, he wound up with a 2 to 1 lead in the super delegates, securing the nomination after dozens changed their votes.
Super delegates, unlike other delegates, are not pledged to support any specific candidate even on the first ballot, and can shift their support at any time.
Here’s one more interesting factoid from the website fivethirtyeight.com:
Superdelegates are mathematically relevant when a candidate has 41.2 percent to 58.8 percent of elected delegates. Below that range, a candidate couldn’t win a first-ballot majority even with the votes of every superdelegate; above that range, the superdelegates’ help wouldn’t be necessary to clinch the nomination.
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